From all reliable indications, the expected post-convention Obama bump in the polls has been almost completely mitigated by the recent announcement of the choice of Sarah Palin as Vice President for McCain. The historic 16 point bump Bill Clinton got in the 1992 convention is nowhere to be seen. The sustained coverage and unmitigated attention to the DNC convention and significant emphasis on the Obama speech in the Mile High Stadium in Denver in front of over 80,000 people (not counting television, radio and internet) did not create a lasting increase in poll numbers. Right now the most current polling data shows Obama ahead, but within the margin of error for such polling data, clearly showing that this race is far from over. For a McCain win, focus needs to be put on Hurricane Gustav and Sarah Palin.
The immediate effect of Gustav has been anticipated to be a negative for the RNC Convention, however, it is an opportunity to show strong Republican party leadership. Currently, reports show much less significant damage than from Katrina, and great opportunity to show leadership on the side of the administration. The message from the DNC convention was that McCain is Bush, and Bush is bad. If Bush can effectively manage this situation with poise and polish, the resulting image is fantastic for McCain, and effectively turns the DNC message into a curse for Obama. This also offers a fantastic opportunity to demonstrate state-level Republican competence by spotlighting Bobby Jindal, a strong Republican with a history of competence. This can help re-gain confidence in the Republican Party lost during the DNC convention.
Sarah Palin’s recent announcement that her unwed 17 year old daughter is pregnant was not a surprise to the campaign, and comes in advance of potential scandal allegations. While this is also somewhat interpreted to be a knock against Palin, this is also a very excellent opportunity to gain votes. From most polling data now available, McCain stands to gain the most from former Hillary voters, as well as females. The Palin pick netted more male than female votes, so this news has the opportunity to have the most impact on the former Hillary supporters and females. Recent commentary shows that the news may make Palin considerably more palatable and help female voters identify with her situation.
0 comments:
Post a Comment