An Obama Win a Lose-Lose

An Obama win would create a lose-lose proposition for the United States. He will go down in history as a major disappointment, regardless of what he does. He has created for himself a situation where he cannot do anything BUT fail, even from the perspective of his supporters. I'll explain that. There are two potential options for where his presidency will lead- if he is effective, he will doom our economy. If he is ineffective, which I will first argue that he will be, he will create an entire generation of disaffected voters which will cast a shadow over his presidency he will probably never live down.

The first, the optimistic Obama supporter opinion, the “hope” that Obama will truly create change in the economy. Obama has promised approximately $292.9 Billion for projects varying from healthcare to infrastructure according to the National Taxpayers Union (http://www.ntu.org/main/page.php?PageID=141 ). This would have to go on top of the 700 Billion dollar bailout (probably more after Obama’s done with it) or whatever costs the current fiasco will leave on the market. So we’re starting off at a cool trillion dollars which will have to go into debt- increasing the already staggering 9.8 Trillion we are already going to be in debt (http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/ ). Of course that’s not adding all the bonuses and earmarks that will doubtless be added… it was McCain, not Obama who proposed that earmarks and pork and projects like the 1.6 Million dollar aquarium Obama got funds for would be cut or vetoed and the savings passed on to the taxpayers. (http://www.cagw.org/site/PageServer?pagename=reports_pigbook2008 )

Update from Hurricane Ike

For those of you who don't know, my house is right south of Sugarland, which is south of Houston, TX. And as we should all know, a storm the size of Arkansas just swept over the Houston area. So of course, my house got hit. Fortunately, my county didn't have to be evacuated, so my family stayed in the house.

That was the extent of what I knew before the storm hit- that, and the fact that my parents, who both pursued secondary engineering degrees, used ratcheting tie-downs (you know, the things they use to hold down loads on 18 wheelers) to strap down roof panels, as these are generally the first to go in a storm.

Once the storm hit, I couldn’t contact my parents at all, and was rather upset given the fact that all the coverage from the news media showed destroyed houses and destroyed areas I formerly went to for vacations… of course all the cell towers were down and the power was out for about 4 million people, so it was all but impossible to know what was going on. Fortunately I was able to get in touch with my family through text messages- always a good idea for disaster where cell towers may be affected. The messages go through as soon as the cell tower can connect.

Strategy Notes on Palin and Gustav

From all reliable indications, the expected post-convention Obama bump in the polls has been almost completely mitigated by the recent announcement of the choice of Sarah Palin as Vice President for McCain. The historic 16 point bump Bill Clinton got in the 1992 convention is nowhere to be seen. The sustained coverage and unmitigated attention to the DNC convention and significant emphasis on the Obama speech in the Mile High Stadium in Denver in front of over 80,000 people (not counting television, radio and internet) did not create a lasting increase in poll numbers. Right now the most current polling data shows Obama ahead, but within the margin of error for such polling data, clearly showing that this race is far from over. For a McCain win, focus needs to be put on Hurricane Gustav and Sarah Palin.

The immediate effect of Gustav has been anticipated to be a negative for the RNC Convention, however, it is an opportunity to show strong Republican party leadership. Currently, reports show much less significant damage than from Katrina, and great opportunity to show leadership on the side of the administration. The message from the DNC convention was that McCain is Bush, and Bush is bad. If Bush can effectively manage this situation with poise and polish, the resulting image is fantastic for McCain, and effectively turns the DNC message into a curse for Obama. This also offers a fantastic opportunity to demonstrate state-level Republican competence by spotlighting Bobby Jindal, a strong Republican with a history of competence. This can help re-gain confidence in the Republican Party lost during the DNC convention.